WG 1: Identifying Seeds of Change

Chairs: Dr. Pierre Rossel, Mr Jari Kaivo-Oja, Dr. Sandro Mendonca and Prof. Ulrik Jørgensen.

This group aims to identify emerging issues and trends.

Although there will always be unexpected events and developments identifying emerging issues and trends and planning for their future effects is the keystone of most foresight activities. This group aims to attempt to identify these issues and is particularly concerned with the identification of parts of the system vulnerable to sudden change. It will focus on areas including complexity theory, risk and uncertainty analysis, cognitive psychology and vulnerability analysis and will use a variety of typologies to help distinguish sources and types of risk, uncertainty and ignorance and to address them.

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